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AustraliaVIC
VCE 12 Methods 2023

10.05 Applications of confidence intervals

Interactive practice questions

In a sample of $350$350 people, it is found that only $1$1 has blood type B-negative.

a

Let $p$p represent the proportion of the population that have blood type B-negative.

Find an estimate for $p$p.

 

b

Find an approximate two-sided $95%$95% confidence interval for $p$p.

Give your answer as an interval in the form $\left(a,b\right)$(a,b), rounding all values to four decimal places.

c

Select the most appropriate interpretation of the confidence interval found in part (b).

We are $95%$95% confident that the probability that a person has blood type B-negative is contained within this interval.

A

The probability that a person has blood type B-negative is not contained within this interval.

B

The probability that a person has blood type B-negative is contained within this interval.

C

There is a $95%$95% chance that the probability that a person has blood type B-negative is contained within this interval.

D
d

One measure of the validity of a confidence interval is that the product of the sample size $n$n and the population proportion $p$p is greater than $5$5.

Estimate this product for the blood type sample.

e

Given the result of part (d), select the most appropriate statement below.

Since $np<5$np<5 for our estimate, we cannot be sure that the sampling distribution is approximately normal and so the confidence interval is not valid.

A

Since $np>5$np>5 for our estimate, we know that the sampling distribution is approximately normal and so the confidence interval is valid.

B
Medium
3min

Jimmy works on the top floor of a $50$50 storey building. The probability that the elevator will stop at another floor on its way up to his office is $p$p.

Jimmy has decided to test this probability by noting the outcome for every one of the $236$236 working days of the year, over five years. He records a $1$1 if the elevator does stop, and a $0$0 if it doesn't stop.

The average outcome for each year is shown in the table below.

Medium
2min

$30$30 hamburger patties advertised as being $180$180 g are weighed and the results are tabulated.

Medium
2min

A supermarket is surveying individuals to determine what proportion is moving towards online grocery shopping. A random sample is taken of $205$205 people, and $80$80 people regularly shop online.

Medium
2min
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Outcomes

U34.AoS4.4

statistical inference, including definition and distribution of sample proportions, simulations and confidence intervals: - distinction between a population parameter and a sample statistic and the use of the sample statistic to estimate the population parameter - simulation of random sampling, for a variety of values of 𝑝 and a range of sample sizes, to illustrate the distribution of 𝑃^ and variations in confidence intervals between samples - concept of the sample proportion as a random variable whose value varies between samples, where 𝑋 is a binomial random variable which is associated with the number of items that have a particular characteristic and 𝑛 is the sample size - approximate normality of the distribution of P^ for large samples and, for such a situation, the mean 𝑝 (the population proportion) and standard deviation - determination and interpretation of, from a large sample, an approximate confidence interval for a population proportion where 𝑧 is the appropriate quantile for the standard normal distribution, in particular the 95% confidence interval as an example of such an interval where 𝑧 ≈ 1.96 (the term standard error may be used but is not required).

U34.AoS4.8

the concept of confidence intervals for proportions, variation in confidence intervals between samples and confidence intervals for estimates

U34.AoS4.12

simulate repeated random sampling and interpret the results, for a variety of population proportions and a range of sample sizes, to illustrate the distribution of sample proportions and variations in confidence intervals

U34.AoS4.13

calculate sample proportions and approximate confidence intervals for population proportions

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