You may have heard people say, "That's impossible," or "I'll probably go to the shops tomorrow." These are words that describe the probability or chance of an event happening.
The probability of an event occurring ranges from $0$0 (impossible; it definitely won't happen) to $1$1 (certain; it definitely will happen). We can use fractions or decimals to describe probabilities in between, or even percentages. The picture below shows how:
The probability of an event can lie anywhere in between $0$0 and $1$1. For example, a probability of $0.8$0.8 is between $0.5$0.5 and $1$1. Looking at our picture, this means our event is likely to happen.
Discuss as a class where you think these events will fit in the range of probabilities. Describe using a word, a fraction and a decimal. Then you can think of your own events and do the same!
A probability of $0.2$0.2 means:
it is impossible for the event to occur
an event is likely to occur.
an event is unlikely to occur.
an event is certain to occur.
Which of these events has a probability closest to $0.9$0.9?
You will flip tails in a coin toss.
It will rain somewhere in Australia tomorrow.
You will score $110%$110% on the next maths test.
You’ll fly a rocket to school.